The predictions of political analysis site FiveThirtyEight , based on a compilation of local and national polls, currently give the former Democratic vice president a 74% chance of winning.
To go beyond polls and numbers, many American pundits, political scientists and researchers to find out the sometimes overlooked reasons that President Donald Trump may lie predictions and keep his place in the Oval Office after the election presidential.
1. Its base remains welded around it
President Trump » has the support of a hard core of dedicated voters, » said Mary E. Stuckey, professor of communications at the College of the Liberal Arts at Pennsylvania State University. The researcher, who has analyzed President Trump’s rhetorical style , continues: “ There are elections of persuasion and elections of mobilization, that is to say those which are based on the fact of convincing the undecided voters and those which are decided mainly by the participation of voters already decided “. And 2020, she, » is an election of mobilization « .
This electoral base devoted to the president “ remains made up of conservative Christians, more specifically Christian nationalists , and people with a restrictive view of immigration. There is a lot of overlap between these two groups. These are the two largest groups of Trump supporters, ”explains Joseph Baker, professor of sociology of religion at East Tennessee State University. » These two subjects are actually rooted in the fears of many white Americans with regard to diversity . »
And if the issue of immigration, which mobilized pro-Trump voters in 2016, has taken a back seat behind the pandemic and anti-racist protests, it could again serve to secure the support of this base electoral. « Trump’s current message on order and security [in reaction to the riots, editor’s note] could easily be adapted to include illegal immigration and the southern border wall, which could resonate with voters who have a more conservative attitude towards immigration, ”says Andrew Green, professor of political science at Central College in Iowa.
“ I live in Georgia and can see how enthusiastic and visible its base is. There is no more shame in supporting Trump, in part because those who were really uncomfortable with him left the party, ”says Cas Mudde, a Dutch political scientist professor at the University of Georgia, a state which Donald Trump won with a 5 point lead over Hillary Clinton in 2016. “ There’s no such energy towards Biden here. »
Trump did what racists and clerics, two important demographic groups, expected of him. In addition, these two groups are terrified of the Democratic Party, so they will mobilize to go and vote.
Case Mudde Professor of political science
2. An electoral system in its favor
As Professor Baker, the sociologist of religions, points out, » the electoral college inevitably over-represents these voters, because this system favors rural states » [relatively more religious, note], which could allow Trump to win with a limited popular support.
Further, according to Professor Stuckey, » since Republican efforts to reduce the number of voters are extremely important, opponents of Trump will have to come out in huge numbers to beat him. » A point also raised by Cas Mudde, who says that these efforts are » even more important than before . And could make it difficult for some Democratic voters.
3. Everything will depend on the pivotal states
Trump can still win » if he makes progress in the six key states, despite his deficit in national polls, » said John E. Owens, professor emeritus of American politics at the Center for the Study of Democracy at the University of Westminster in the UK. He clarified that while Biden is currently leading in the six pivotal states – which can tip the election from one side to the other – and he only needs to win 3 of 6, » North Carolina will always be very tight, Pennsylvania seems to be tightening and Wisconsin probably too, although Biden remains in the lead ” . Plus » Florida is still tight with some uncertainty as to whether Biden can mobilize the Latin vote. Because of a certain hostility from part of the Cuban diaspora against the Democratic candidate.
4. The time factor
Trump is trying to scare the white voter in the suburban suburbs into backing him up again, invoking public policy arguments, implicit racial messages and the threat of socialism, ”says Cas Mudde. » Which won’t work that well against Biden, widely regarded as a moderate . » But time is on the side of the Republican, candidate for his own re-election. For the Dutch political scientist, “ fatigue in the face of Covid-19 and an economic recovery, compared to summer 2020 rather than winter 2019, can help him to be re-elected. »
“ President Trump’s opponent in this election is not Joe Biden. Its main opponent is time. To be re-elected, he must turn time to reverse so that the past becomes the present again, ”says Dr. Roderick P. Hart, Chair in Communication and Professor of Political Science at the Moody College of Communication at the University of Texas at Austin. This is not a new tactic according to the professor. It has been used by candidates, Democrats and Republicans alike, facing scandals.
If Trump wins, it will be because he finds a way to make voters forget the present.
Roderick P. HartPolitologist
According to Dr. Hart, » the Republican convention tried to make us forget the past » by hammering, for example, that Trump always liked blacks, he never spoke in a derogatory way about the international allies of the United States or that he respects. totally women and Hispanics. “ Trump’s basic argument in this election is that because the United States was once healthy and wealthy, he should be reelected. The felt reality, of course, is that much of the nation is now ruined and sick. »
5. He is the past president
Donald Trump is sort of playing at home. » We have seen it with the use of the White House for the Republican Convention, Trump enjoys the advantages of the position of incumbent president and better access to the media, » explains Professor Owens. Conversely, » by definition, Biden is a spectator who cannot use the powers of government » for his campaign. In addition, » although time is running out, Mr. Trump could still significantly improve his performance in terms of managing the Covid-19 crisis, which is the main obstacle to his popularity rate « .
6. The polls are wrong (maybe)
Like the previous presidential election, the polls could also be wrong. » Either because » timid « voters of Trump do not admit supporting him, as in 2016, » recalls the professor emeritus who points out that a recent Bloomberg poll » suggests that Republicans and independents are less likely than Democrats to reveal their sincere partisan preferences ”. Or “ because pollster demographic samples, especially in pivotal states, could be failing and include too many Democrats and / or too few uneducated white men ,” thus skewing the results in favor of Joe Biden.